Standings and tendencies - 1/7 into the season

30 games already played let me drop a snap shot of how the league is unfolding this season.


Standings with each team's finishing points tendency as a probability distribution. 'X' marks most likely finishing points; line begins at current points and ends at maximum points.

An entirely different picture than last time I shot it. But revealing none the less.

We're doing OK, placed second making up a sort of early title race along with OB and FC Midtjylland. Unbeaten and having conceded only three goals. Followed by Randers and Brøndby in a not too dangerously looking pursuit.

The promoted teams, Vejle BK and SønderjyskE, have done very well so far. Vejle has more points (7) but SønderjyskE has actually managed to draw both us and FC Midtjylland at home (1-1 both).

Esbjerg fB and FC Nordsjælland are in relegation zone and the disappointments for now. They have lost home games to Vejle and SønderjyskE respectively. Both still without wins.

Aalborg clinched Danish title; Brøndby darby tomorrow

In case you didn't notice...

Aalborg clinched the Danish championship with two matches to go on Thursday, beating Brondby at home 2-0 and opening an insurmountable eight-point lead over last year’s champions, FC Copenhagen.

Most likely final standings include:

1. Gold / Champions League qualification: AaB 68, 69 or 71 points


2. Silver / UEFA Cup qualification: FC København 60, 61 or 63 p


3. Bronze / UEFA Cup qualification: FC Midtjylland 59 or 62 p


4. Fourth / TOTO Cup: OB 52, 53, 54, 55 or 57 p


5. Fifth / n/a: AC Horsens 47, 49, 51 or 53 p

(My emphasis on most probable final points.)

So this season's far from over: Tomorrow we have to beat former rivals Brøndby to put them in place and secure the silverware!

Placed ninth Brøndby looks relatively easy this year and statistics speak of a possible win. But actually they made 28 points at home so far, FC København only 23 away. And averaging this season's scores the tendency is 1.05 - 1.4 which is a bit narrow for my liking - but since 53% of the team's games had less than three goals, that might be a good bet. Significant injuries: Brøndby IF: Mikkel Bischoff, Morten 'Duncan' Rasmussen, Morten Rasmussen and Trond Andersen; FC København: Jesper Grønkjær is recovering from knee surgery while Mikael Antonsson, Niclas Jensen and Rasmus Würtz might soon be playing.

Wild guess: 1-1 draw, our goal scored by Morten Nordstrand ;-)

We're the champions! - but when and by how much?

Yanks Abroad has an epic summary of this weekend's AaB - Vejle game, which sums up the league situation...

With the win, Aalborg BK stay in fourth ahead of Saturday's trip to Danish leaders FC Copenhagen, but are now only a point behind third place Odense BK and two points shy of second place FC Midtjylland.

That's right, there's some excitement about the silver and bronze ware. But the gold medal is destined for FC København. The question is: by what margin will the record of league lead be extended.

FC København has 66 points, FC Midtjylland and OB 50 and 49. With six games to go these teams can reach a maximum of 68 and 67 points respectively. But what are the chances they manage that? Quite low. At the same time, what is the risk FC København can't make just three more points? About 0.1% So the probability of gold is higher than 99.9%

And quite likely the medals are secured next Saturday after the AaB home game. A win will do it, as can a draw or even a loss depending on the results of FC Midtjylland and OB. I'd say it's almost 60% sure we'll cheer to a gold medal Saturday night in Copenhagen. On the other hand AaB are in much more need of points as they struggle for a bronze or perhaps silver medal. And they appear to be in good form. I hope we're in for an entertaining game. Østerbro bars: order extra beer.

The league is settling

Top contenders FC Midtjylland just got trashed 1-4 on their own turf. Here's a paste of a fresh approximate assessment of the league outcome...

Gold medal

• FC København 93%


• FC Midtjylland or OB 3% each


• Any other 1% total

Relegation

• Vejle or Silkeborg IF 91% each


• Any other 18% total

Almost boring.