Monday, March 18, 2013
Compared to previous graphic league tables - which I know you know and love - the prognosis part (the thick part of the lines here with logos inserted) are now influenced by the current form of the teams. It still shows the area around the point average extrapolation but now the last five games played counts double.
This numerological change tricks us to see the championship even more firmly in the hands of FC København as not just the last five, but the last nine games have been wins (a record). But consider also that Copenhagen has 17 wins and has scored 54 goals in 23 games. Significantly better stats than any other team. The thick bar area doesn't touch that of the nearest pursuit any more - meaning the frequency of wins and draws would have to halve and at the same time double for Randers and/or FC Nordsjælland (FCN with only 22 goals against) during the remainder of the season for FC Copenhagen to slip from the 1st place. Unlikely.
In the bottom, Brøndby IF cosmetically climbed above the relegation line with a 1-1 draw against FC Midtjylland (each their 9th draw this season). But they are still a relegation zone team as they are level with Sønderjyske and Silkeborg (Silkeborg with 48 goals against!) at 21 points.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Meanwhile I avoid succumbing to hunger in the stands. Because most of the hot dogs I have tried have been under cooked chemical experiences so far.
Here is an interview in Danish with the chief chefs. You can actually see the pitch in the background.
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Lost 1-2. Copenhagen mostly in control; N. Jørgensen hit the post twice, C. Santin wasted a 100% chance. Helsingborg's first goal on a penalty clumsily and unnecessarily committed by S. Ottesen - who also fouled A. Santos for a yellow.
Friendly atmosphere. One in five spectators were Swedes. A. Santos celebrated by Copenhagen fans.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Found a few wrinkled tickets in the basement. I have trashed most throughout the years and have even given some away to a foreign collector but a few memorable ones survived.
The game against Hamburg was scandalous. That referee was relegated to English amateur leagues.
On the trip to the Royal League final a guy was thrown off the bus for pissing in the aile, another arrested immediately upon arrival for being too drunk.
Mallorca had Eto'o with them, Lazio had Nesta.
Friday, May 25, 2012
Final standing analysisWe "won" silver. Scored the most goals (55) and lost the fewest games (5) but nothing much out of the ordinary (as in P<0.1 rather than just 0.2, you know).
What is impressive is a team expected to finish mid-league getting clean sheets in 52% of their games. Congratulations. To be fair, their title is also based on the failure of OB and the near complete disintegration of Brøndby.
Based on the sovereignty of the Danish league in previous seasons (see analysis of 2010/11 and 2009/2010) and a squad value twice the sum of nearest competitors pre-season the championship chances were estimated to higher than 60%.
|The winter break analysis. Since then FC Copenhagen slumped, FC Nordsjælland improved. But actually, neither was entirely unforeseeable. Both teams finished well within the thick parts of their blue bars seen here.|
What now?Zanka and Nordstrand already signed with PSV Eindhoven and FC Nordsjælland respectively. Dame N'Doye will leave - so we have been sure for months and now Everton is open about their interest (and willingness to pay graciously). Johan Wiland could be sold for a big sum also; prettying up hole in the accounting after the lost Champions League incomes further while leaving us with fully competent Kim Christensen to guard the goal.
On top of that management need to take a good hard look at the rest of the squad. Then act reasonably (contrary to harshly and instinctively like most fans seem to be demanding). A bit of discussion (and scape goat picking) could be fun, but how about basing it on facts? Below is a graph of players ordered by point averages and matches played. (Please count in how many ways it lies to us as far as being a tool of evaluating performances.)
Based on the brilliant Nipserstat.dk. If a player was in a lot of games, shouldn't his point average best be above the team average (2) for us to conclude he's safe from criticism? (Largest uncertainty in the table is it doesn't account for actual minutes played.)
See you in a couple of months when I probably make wild claims about next season.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Click to enlarge.
|Manager Carsten Vagn Jensen and director Anders Hørsholt.|
|Thomsen and Sigurdsson.|
|Claudemir, Delaney, Nordstrand.|
|Thomsen, Claudemir, Wiland, Sigurdsson, Diouf.|
|Bengtsson (and Sigurdsson?)|
|Zohore, Bengtsson, Toutouh, Claudemir.|
|Diouf (and Thomsen in the far back)|
I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)
I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.
In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.