Friday, August 08, 2014

Leverkusen og Hobro: Fornemmelse for røde ører

Bayer Leverkusen blev trukket op af tombolaen for et par timer siden. Humøret steg i København, i Danmark og på #sldk. Det kunne have været meget værre.

Men husk træningskampen mod Lyon. De skulle være miles away fra fordums styrke. Det er de utvivlsomt også. Men det sammenrend af talenter, nyindkøb og reserver, de havde sendt til København, lod ikke FCK få et ben til jorden. Det var lidt skræmmende. Og jeg har flere gange før fået samme fornemmelse, når jeg har stået i Parken og set, hvad man troede var en overkommelig modstander fra midten af en af de bedre ligaer, vise sig at være overlegen. Ingen nævnt, ingen glemt.

Leverkusen kunne vise sig at være én af disse uanselige men uopnåelige legekammerater.

Så ser jeg derimod frem til weekenden som et rigtigt følelsesmenneske. Det meste af af Superligaen tør jeg egentlig slet ikke spå om. Psykisk udfordrede Brøndby vinder forhåbentlig ikke mod et OB, der har alt at bevise. FCK og Malmø viser klassen. Og FCM formår i modsætning til så mange andre at score mod Sønderjyske.

Det har jeg turdet spille på. Men jeg ved ikke, om skal stole på min kupon. Hidtil er min tilbagebetalingsprocent på sølle 42%.


Så skulle der være antijinxet for røde ører i både Europa og suppen.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Dystre udsigter til endnu et mesterskab

Selvfølgelig er FC København endnu en gang favoritter til at vinde det danske mesterskab. På dette tidspunkt af året plejer jeg at lave en lille forventningsanalyse på baggrund af en håndfuld statistikker (se juli 2013 eller juli 2011). Ikke i år. Jo, måske når transfervinduet lukker. Hvis jeg gider og når det.

Men jeg har lavet et gratis hold på holdet.dk. Det er i et vist omfang et udtryk for, hvordan jeg forventer sæsonen udspiller sig. To forsvarere fra FC København, fordi forsvarere vinder mesterskaber. Mussis og de Ridder på baggrund af deres 1. halvleg i træningskampen mod Horsens. To profiler fra mesterholdet AaB, deres bomber inklusive. To forhåbentligt målfarlige offensivspillere fra målfarlige FC Midtjylland. Resten først og fremmest ud fra, hvad budgettet tillader.

Hold slår spillere. Det så vi senest i VM-semifinalen mellem de kommende verdensmestre Tyskland og værtsnationen Brasilien. Og første runde i enhver turnering byder på usammenhængende spil fra nyligt sammensatte trupper samt overraskelser generelt. Især de økonomisk stærke klubber har købt ind, og er ikke helt færdige med at spille startelleveren sammen. Hvorimod f.eks. oprykkerne kommer brusende med 100% gejst. Så i første runde spillede jeg på et par af den slags overraskelser. Bortset fra i Silkeborg - FC København, hvor klasseforskellen mand for mand burde have været for stor.


Det var den så ikke.

Kampene i 2. runde ser mindst lige så uforudsigelige ud. Måske spiller jeg på et par små overraskelser igen? Om det bliver tre point eller ej, ved jeg ikke. Men det bliver sikkert grimt at se på. Det gør resten af sæsonen måske også. Men jeg forventer endnu et mesterskab. Selvfølgelig.

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Træningskamp: FCK - Horsens 1-0

Mussis spillede virkelig godt. Og scorede. Øvrige indkøb ser også gode ud. Dårlig kamp af Pourie.

1. halvleg: Wiland, Høgli, Amartey, Delaney, Bengtsson, Jørgensen, Claudemir, Mussis, Amankwaa, De Ridder, Cornelius (j.f. FCK - men reelt spillede Claudemir bagerst og Amartey en defensiv midt det meste af tiden!?)




Et noget uskarpt billede. Jeg uploadede fra min mobil efter at have overført fra spejlreflekskamera til mobil - og så viser et af billederne sig altså senere at være noget uskarpt. Til gengæld viser det Bengtssons indlæg til målet.


Mussis mål.


Horsens Sebastien Ibeagha i baggrunden. Hvis der ligger et bedre foto af ham på kameraets kort, må Horsens hjemmeside gerne få det. Udemærket spiller.




2. halvleg: Stephan, Amankwaa, Amartey, Sigthorsson (prøvespiller), Aaquist, Toutouh, Claudemir, Delaney, Gislason, Pourie, Felfel


Sigthorsson.



Amartey, Sigthorsson og Delaney.


Stephan Andersen.


Horsens træner i fokus.

Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Final standing analysis 2013/14


#KlubPWDLGGA+/-Clean sheetsNo goals
1.AaB3318**8760**3822*116
2.FC København331511754381693**
3.FC Midtjylland331671061**3823*106
4.Brøndby IF331313747389107
5.Esbjerg fB3313911473891010
6.FC Nordsjælland33137133844-6116
7.Randers FC33914*104145-44*7
8.OB331010134746158
9.FC Vestsjælland33814*1131*42-11713*
10.SønderjyskE33108154153-1297
11.AGF3395**19**3860**-22*4*14***
12.Viborg336**1017*3863***-25*710

A season that started bad (just 7 points in first eight games, only win vs relegating Viborg), slumped up and down, then finished spectacularly. A season that played out not quite as predicted.

To evaluate a bit on the FC København players: The top point averages were made by Remmer 2.21; Margreitter 1.95; Braaten 1.77; TK 1.66 and Sigurdsson 1.64. That's young talent, two short term contracts that have left, TK who's probably (and unfortunately) also leaving and Sigurdsson who has already left. At home, the players with 2+ point averages are Remmer, Margreitter, Braaten, Wiland, Delaney, TK and Toutouh; away Remmer, Margreitter, Braaten, TK, Cornelius and Sigurdsson made 1.35+. (Only players with 900 minutes played or more have been included.)

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Season 2013/14 has been kicked off

A plot of estimated squad transfer values (via transfermarkt.de) and championship probablilities (via betbrain.com) looks a little bit comforting (although Google Spreadsheets has deleted the FC Copenhagen legend in the bottom right).

Error bars of 25% have been slapped on the squad value estimates.

The graphical league tables I always do can be drawn already. Well, there are no division by zero errors. But it's even stupider than normally.
After one round played those who win are to the left with a gap from 0 to 2 points, the teams that drew in the middle and the teams that lost to the right with gaps from to 97 to 99 points. This method doesn't make us smarter yet.

Since the graph is drawn automatically below is a dynamically updated version. If sources change it will display rubbish.
Who to watch for this season? Heard a TV commentator, a former pro player and a coach predict the team of the season (hubris alert) on the radio. All three had Lars Jacobsen on the right back. Two had Ragnar Sigurdsson in the central defense. Igor Vetokele, Nicolai Jørgensen and Johan Wiland were mentioned once each.


Obviously it will also be interesting to see Olof Mellberg who joined on a free transfer. And if some of the young players will get their break through.

Who to look for in the other teams? Perhaps midfielder Martin Vingaard who was just sold from Copenhagen to FC Nordsjælland. Now he should get the space and time to manifest. Left back Patrick Mtiliga also of FC Nordsjælland. Central defender Lasse Nielsen of AaB. Midfielder Kasper Kusk also of AaB. Plus striker Ronnie Schwartz Nielsen of Randers FC. According to the above mentioned experts and impressions of the first round.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Final standing analysis 2012/13

Better late than never. It's been about seven weeks since the last game of last season. But before (possibly) picking up on looking towards season 2013/14, a quick look at last season is by now "tradition" (see 2011/12, 2010/11, 2009/10, and 2008/09).

#ClubWDLGFGA+/-Clean sheetsNo goals
1FC København18**114***62*32*30***96
2FC Nordsjælland17*97*60*3723*135
3Randers FC157113642-61211
4Esbjerg fB138123832*616**11
5AaB1381251465810
6FC Midtjylland1211105147482***
7AGF1181450491711
8SønderjyskE125**165357-44*9
9Brøndby IF912**123945-6710
10OB108155259-796
11AC Horsens8*101531**49-181213
12Silkeborg8*718*3866**-28**2**13

Despite the lead of only 5 points to no. 2, FC Nordsjælland, I was beginning to feel very confident as early as mid April. The very low number of lost games (4) and solid plus score (+30) speaks volumes as well.

Much better than last season. Nowhere near as dominant as the two seasons before that. One main different being the coach, Ariel Jacobs.

A few notable player stats via nipserstat.dk: In most games César Santin (45), most full 90 minutes games and most minutes played: Ragnar Sigurdsson (40 and 3838), most goals Andreas Cornelius (20), most assists Nicolai Jørgensen (10).

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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.