Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Season 2013/14 has been kicked off

A plot of estimated squad transfer values (via transfermarkt.de) and championship probablilities (via betbrain.com) looks a little bit comforting (although Google Spreadsheets has deleted the FC Copenhagen legend in the bottom right).

Error bars of 25% have been slapped on the squad value estimates.

The graphical league tables I always do can be drawn already. Well, there are no division by zero errors. But it's even stupider than normally.
After one round played those who win are to the left with a gap from 0 to 2 points, the teams that drew in the middle and the teams that lost to the right with gaps from to 97 to 99 points. This method doesn't make us smarter yet.

Since the graph is drawn automatically below is a dynamically updated version. If sources change it will display rubbish.
Who to watch for this season? Heard a TV commentator, a former pro player and a coach predict the team of the season (hubris alert) on the radio. All three had Lars Jacobsen on the right back. Two had Ragnar Sigurdsson in the central defense. Igor Vetokele, Nicolai Jørgensen and Johan Wiland were mentioned once each.


Obviously it will also be interesting to see Olof Mellberg who joined on a free transfer. And if some of the young players will get their break through.

Who to look for in the other teams? Perhaps midfielder Martin Vingaard who was just sold from Copenhagen to FC Nordsjælland. Now he should get the space and time to manifest. Left back Patrick Mtiliga also of FC Nordsjælland. Central defender Lasse Nielsen of AaB. Midfielder Kasper Kusk also of AaB. Plus striker Ronnie Schwartz Nielsen of Randers FC. According to the above mentioned experts and impressions of the first round.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Final standing analysis 2012/13

Better late than never. It's been about seven weeks since the last game of last season. But before (possibly) picking up on looking towards season 2013/14, a quick look at last season is by now "tradition" (see 2011/12, 2010/11, 2009/10, and 2008/09).

#ClubWDLGFGA+/-Clean sheetsNo goals
1FC København18**114***62*32*30***96
2FC Nordsjælland17*97*60*3723*135
3Randers FC157113642-61211
4Esbjerg fB138123832*616**11
5AaB1381251465810
6FC Midtjylland1211105147482***
7AGF1181450491711
8SønderjyskE125**165357-44*9
9Brøndby IF912**123945-6710
10OB108155259-796
11AC Horsens8*101531**49-181213
12Silkeborg8*718*3866**-28**2**13

Despite the lead of only 5 points to no. 2, FC Nordsjælland, I was beginning to feel very confident as early as mid April. The very low number of lost games (4) and solid plus score (+30) speaks volumes as well.

Much better than last season. Nowhere near as dominant as the two seasons before that. One main different being the coach, Ariel Jacobs.

A few notable player stats via nipserstat.dk: In most games César Santin (45), most full 90 minutes games and most minutes played: Ragnar Sigurdsson (40 and 3838), most goals Andreas Cornelius (20), most assists Nicolai Jørgensen (10).

Monday, March 18, 2013

A graphic league table says more about gold than a thousand tables of numbers

The league table as of 18th of March 2013. Valid until next round on 28th of March 2013.

Compared to previous graphic league tables - which I know you know and love - the prognosis part (the thick part of the lines here with logos inserted) are now influenced by the current form of the teams. It still shows the area around the point average extrapolation but now the last five games played counts double.

This numerological change tricks us to see the championship even more firmly in the hands of FC København as not just the last five, but the last nine games have been wins (a record). But consider also that Copenhagen has 17 wins and has scored 54 goals in 23 games. Significantly better stats than any other team. The thick bar area doesn't touch that of the nearest pursuit any more - meaning the frequency of wins and draws would have to halve and at the same time double for Randers and/or FC Nordsjælland (FCN with only 22 goals against) during the remainder of the season for FC Copenhagen to slip from the 1st place. Unlikely.

In the bottom, Brøndby IF cosmetically climbed above the relegation line with a 1-1 draw against FC Midtjylland (each their 9th draw this season). But they are still a relegation zone team as they are level with Sønderjyske and Silkeborg (Silkeborg with 48 goals against!) at 21 points.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Stadium cuisine

The restaurant at the FC Copenhagen home turf does not have a Micheling star - it now has two Michelin stars. That has got to be relatively rare?

Meanwhile I avoid succumbing to hunger in the stands. Because most of the hot dogs I have tried have been under cooked chemical experiences so far.

Here is an interview in Danish with the chief chefs. You can actually see the pitch in the background.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Friendly vs Helsingborg at home

Lost 1-2. Copenhagen mostly in control; N. Jørgensen hit the post twice, C. Santin wasted a 100% chance. Helsingborg's first goal on a penalty clumsily and unnecessarily committed by S. Ottesen - who also fouled A. Santos for a yellow.

Friendly atmosphere. One in five spectators were Swedes. A. Santos celebrated by Copenhagen fans.

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Old tickets, old memories

Found a few wrinkled tickets in the basement. I have trashed most throughout the years and have even given some away to a foreign collector but a few memorable ones survived.

The game against Hamburg was scandalous. That referee was relegated to English amateur leagues.

On the trip to the Royal League final a guy was thrown off the bus for pissing in the aile, another arrested immediately upon arrival for being too drunk.

Mallorca had Eto'o with them, Lazio had Nesta.

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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.