Monday, April 30, 2007

We're the champions! - but when and by how much?

Yanks Abroad has an epic summary of this weekend's AaB - Vejle game, which sums up the league situation...

With the win, Aalborg BK stay in fourth ahead of Saturday's trip to Danish leaders FC Copenhagen, but are now only a point behind third place Odense BK and two points shy of second place FC Midtjylland.


That's right, there's some excitement about the silver and bronze ware. But the gold medal is destined for FC København. The question is: by what margin will the record of league lead be extended.

FC København has 66 points, FC Midtjylland and OB 50 and 49. With six games to go these teams can reach a maximum of 68 and 67 points respectively. But what are the chances they manage that? Quite low. At the same time, what is the risk FC København can't make just three more points? About 0.1% So the probability of gold is higher than 99.9%

And quite likely the medals are secured next Saturday after the AaB home game. A win will do it, as can a draw or even a loss depending on the results of FC Midtjylland and OB. I'd say it's almost 60% sure we'll cheer to a gold medal Saturday night in Copenhagen. On the other hand AaB are in much more need of points as they struggle for a bronze or perhaps silver medal. And they appear to be in good form. I hope we're in for an entertaining game. Østerbro bars: order extra beer.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Morten Bisgaard contemplations

"Playing in the Premier League would be another dream come true for me and I also think it would bring me closer to the national team again, I haven't given up on that."


Midfielder Morten Bisgaard has spoken to Derby Telegraph about his future [MORTEN'S DANISH AMBITION]. This is the only remotely interesting press clip for this week for two reasons:

  1. Morten's 98th and so far last game for FC København was a brilliant 4-2 win away to FC Nordsjælland which clinched the Danish championship of 2004. That was also the last time we had an exciting league - since then Brøndby (2005) and FC København (2006 and 2007) have secured their medals well before the closing of the season.

  2. Practically the entire current FC København squad consist of national team regulars. I don't think a lot of players in the second best English league are? Hey, the question I ask is: why dream of playing for the national Danish team if one doesn't care enough about Denmark to pay taxes here? (A weird tax rule is basically what makes Bisgaard and other players change clubs in and out of Denmark.)



Anyway, if he can return to former glory and has added some routine to go... I wouldn't mind seeing him again.

Monday, April 23, 2007

One step closer

AC Horsens were beaten 3-1 this Sunday and the gold medal moved just a little closer. It can hardly get closer than this - we're talking about 97% certainty. Us fans need hardly watch the games...

UC / Sektion 12

Danish media reports Dan Thomassen is to move to Vålerenga, Norway this summer. And that Werder Bremen scouted Michael Silberbauer yesterday while Hannover did so two weeks ago.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Media & Mission Statement (sort of)

"Don't you need some media for that blog?" someone asked me when looking at this URL here. Dude, text is my media. I know you're thinking YouTube clips - but 49% are of teenagers singing a "FCK song" they composed themselves the week before, 49% are copyrighted material that will disappear sooner or later and the remaining 2% I'm not spending my time searching out.

This blog is above all an experiment. How easy can I do it? I've dumped those useful links (half of which disappeared last time my computer crashed, you know). Practical. I get a Google News Alert email once a week plus I play around with some news filtering using Yahoo Pipes; and I copy/paste some of it into a blog entry. Label it with tags for future convenience. Practical and very little effort. Someone maintains a league calendar - sweet! Feeds from around the net - thank you. No effort. Of course, the statistics/probabilities are sort of leftovers from my betting mania. Numbers that would otherwise just disappear on my hard disk. This blog is not supposed to be a day job...

BUT... I actually got some "media" for you. Back when we were looking forward to six Champions League group matches, I was at the same time looking for a new shower curtain because I just moved. I thought to myself "If at any point in my life I can possibly get away with buying something as cheesy as a FC København shower curtain now is the time." I still kind of like it, actually. Here you go...

My FC København shower curtain



My FC København shower curtain

As far as I remember, it was around 200 DKR. Bought in the shop at the stadium of course. You can buy all kinds of equally cheesy merchandise online as well: visit supershoppen.dk.

Oh yeah, FC København won another league game yesterday. But that's really of zero news value. Check out the brief summary at Yanks Abroad if interested. The gap to no. 2 is now 13 points, which I believe is a club record.

Monday, April 16, 2007

League lead extended

As I said...
FC Copenhagen extended their lead at the top of the SAS-Ligaen after a 4-2 win over Odense BK.

With second-placed challengers FC Midtjylland drawing 1-1 with FC Nordsjaelland, Copenhagen's win took them 11 points clear at the summit.


Sporting Life / Copenhagen edge away at top

Sunday, April 15, 2007

Danish Cup update

UEFA.com / Upsets fuel Danish Cup interest

København are close to clinching the championship, rendering the cup the last chance for silverware for eight sides, each of whom are eager to claim the winners' prize of a UEFA Cup place.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

The league is settling

Top contenders FC Midtjylland just got trashed 1-4 on their own turf. Here's a paste of a fresh approximate assessment of the league outcome...

Gold medal

  • FC København 93%

  • FC Midtjylland or OB 3% each

  • Any other 1% total



Relegation

  • Vejle or Silkeborg IF 91% each

  • Any other 18% total



Almost boring.

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Martin Laursen considers Copenhagen

From EuroSport:
Martin Laursen is eyeing a summer exit from Aston Villa, with FC Copenhagen his preferred destination.

The Danish defender, who has been plagued by injury this season, sees his contract expire at the end of the current campaign and would be willing to return to his homeland if a new deal can not be worked out with Martin O'Neill's side.

He said: "With 20,000 home fans every home game and a sound financial situation it's a very attractive club."

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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.