Danish Superliga 2009/2010, final standings analysis

(33 rounds) W D L F A P CS NG 1 FC København 21 *** 5 * 7 * 61 *** 22 ** 68 ** 17 *** 8 2 OB 17 8 8 46 34 59 10 6 ** 3 Brøndby IF 15 7 11 57 * 50 52 5 * 6 ** 4 Esbjerg fB 13 11 *** 9 48 43 50 10 10 5 AaB 13 9 11 36 30 48 14 * 10 6 FC Midtjylland 14 5 * 14 45 48 47 9 11 7 FC Nordsjælland 12 7 14 40 41 43 10 12 8 Silkeborg 12 7 14 47 51 43 7 9 9 SønderjyskE 11 8 14 32 37 41 11 11 10 Randers FC 10 10 * 13 37 43 40 8 11 11 AGF 10 8 15 36 47 38 9 13 * 12 HB Køge 4 *** 7 22 **** 30 * 69 *** 19 *** 5 * 8 Cards Y R TC W Won AGF 66 3 69 *** D Draws Silkeborg 53 1 54 L Lost HB Køge 49 3 52 F Goals For

OB 47 3 50 A Goals Against AaB 46 1 47 P Points FC Midtjylland 43 2 45 CS Clean Sheets FC Nordsjælland 42 2 44 NG No Goals Randers FC 37 3 40 Y Yellow Cards Esbjerg fB 34 3 37 R Red Cards Brøndby IF 37 0 37 TC Total Cards SønderjyskE 35 1 36 FC København 21 1 22 *** * Outside 80%; P<0.2 ** Outside 90%; P<0.1 *** Outside 95%; P<0.05 **** Outside 98%; P<0.02

Standings and tendencies - 1/7 into the season

30 games already played let me drop a snap shot of how the league is unfolding this season.


Standings with each team's finishing points tendency as a probability distribution. 'X' marks most likely finishing points; line begins at current points and ends at maximum points.

An entirely different picture than last time I shot it. But revealing none the less.

We're doing OK, placed second making up a sort of early title race along with OB and FC Midtjylland. Unbeaten and having conceded only three goals. Followed by Randers and Brøndby in a not too dangerously looking pursuit.

The promoted teams, Vejle BK and SønderjyskE, have done very well so far. Vejle has more points (7) but SønderjyskE has actually managed to draw both us and FC Midtjylland at home (1-1 both).

Esbjerg fB and FC Nordsjælland are in relegation zone and the disappointments for now. They have lost home games to Vejle and SønderjyskE respectively. Both still without wins.

Wonderful Copenhagen elimination

AET Esbjerg [2 - 2] FC Copenhagen
67' [0 - 1] M. Jørgensen
104' [1 - 1] J. Bech
114' [1 - 2] J. Grønkjær
120' [2 - 2] J. Lange
Copyright © 1998-2008 LiveScore.com

Meaning Esbjerg fB progress to the final on 3-2 aggregate.

And that Danish journalists will have to make up new wild stories to portray a crisis situation. Because this game as well as the April 13th 0-0 draw in Odense saw some very good performances and seemingly reasonable tactics. The two games before that didn't but I'll leave that for now.

But winning the league is the priority now. Which isn't at all impossible. Looking at the standings and the remaining matches I'd say there is at least 40% chance of that happening by "chance" (yes I'm doing a statistical analysis that isn't quite ready for the limeligth yet) - and add to that the frustration gained today and the overall performance progress. But it will be a lot more exciting than in most recent seasons. Stay tuned on the Danish league.

Spring cleaning

Outside it's snowing but calendar says it's spring so as regular visitors will have noticed I've gotten rid of the old layout in a spring clean-up and the team has undertaken the last part of the championship begun last year. What you see isn't the 'next version' since I think of this blog as an ongoing experiment, so for now you have to put up with the somewhat weird and 90ies looking chalked grass thing I got going out on the right... I'll also have to come up with somewhere to put this...

...so no, I'm not done.

And neither is the team! The first of four encounters with Esbjerg fB this half season ended as a loss (2-1 away, defender assisted goal by Jesper Grønkjær). Annoying, but also why we love the game. When it comes down to it all three goals were rather random. Then this Saturday AC Horsens were beaten (1-0 home, goal on penalty by Libor Sionko). Media have been quite aggressive towards FC København for being 'boring' and old know-betters have reared their ugly heads again at this slightest chance to reinvigorate their bashing of the contract with Ailton Almeida (coach Ståle has to do some rotation in his starting 11, but obviously ONE game without Ailton is PROOF he's a waste of money). Anyway, we're second with three points to #1 AaB and five points to #3 FC Midtjylland.

Lastly, as I'll remove some of the more exotic features of my sidebar I'll leave them here for probably very few people to ever find again. First, the Copenhagen Football Map made with Google Maps... you guys really don't need to know where Hvidovre Stadium is at.

Vis stort kort
Then there were a few polls on expectations for our European campaign this season. Since I have no idea what type of people actually vote I don't know who the results says anything about. But generally votes were evenly distributed. Which makes sense since we played teams like Beitar Jerusalem and RC Lens - pretty solid teams that we can both win over and lose to.

Guess I better do a poll on who you are?

Danish Cup

Saturday

• Næstved - FC København 0-2

Sunday

• Skive - Esbjerg fB 0-4


• Vejle - FC Midtjylland 1-2


• Brøndby IF - Randers FC 2-1

Draw

• Brøndby IF - FC Midtjylland


• FC København - Esbjerg fB

Add 1^st semifinal to Google Calendar:

Update:

"Riot" video at YouTube

This week's league: Elite tactics vs. mediocre dog fighting

The league in a nutshell: Copenhagen barely clinch victory in tactical top flight encounter with Odense while Brøndby suffer loss to league run-of-the-mill Esbjerg fB despite hard fought come back. Both Copenhagen teams scored twice but that must be the only similarity.

FC København - Odense Boldklub 2-1

This Saturday I witnessed from the sideline FC København registering another home win. By half time I was wondering why I hadn't put a bet on 0-0 because this was at least as defensive a game as anyone could have predicted. Before this weekend Odense only allowed 0.6 goals against on average and hadn't been beaten for seven games straight. We used five or six defenders in total and played the first hour with only one really dedicated striker. But with half an hour to go Marcus Allbäck made it 1-0 only minutes after entering the pitch. That man only scores important goals.

Now the game opened up a bit and we got two more goals to enjoy before leaving for post-game beers and games of billiard at the Copenhagen bars. A typical set piece header by Brede Hangeland and another sharp striker type finish by former FC København player David Nielsen. 2-1, 3 points and in place at the league pole position while Odense stay 4th.

Esbjerg fB - Brøndby IF 3-2

The contrast to Brøndby IF's away game against Esbjerg fB couldn't have been sharper. For one thing, I witnessed it getting drenched in hails and rain from the warm comfort of my couch. Brøndby have declared their crisis is over and talked of silverware in the pre-game interviews. Only to allow Esbjerg's Njogu Demba-Nyren to score after just 32 seconds.

Esbjerg continued dominating the game by excellent short passing, technical details and optimist attacking. Jesper Mikkelsen and Demba-Nyren made it 3-0. But before Brøndby collapsed Chris Katongo was brought on and managed to make it 3-1 by a resolute cannon ball finish from close distance. Then Stefan Gislason, Martin Ericsson and the strong wind collaborated on turning a corner kick into another goal.

Pressing for the equalizer Brøndby also allowed a couple of Esbjerg counter attacks. One of these ended in Niki Zimling - who otherwise had a great day at the job - wasting the opportunity of taking a penalty kick. Esbjerg fB are now placed 8th two points ahead of Brøndby.

From Esbjerg to Benfica

In yesterday's 5-2 win I missed the last goalSporting Life / COPENHAGEN MAKE THEIR MOVE. Today, YouTube is my friend...



Tuesday night we'll be tuning in to the transmission from Portugal - with the weird comfort of risking little and the realistic hopes of winning everything. Here is some recent reading matter on Benfica:

Benfica Coach Fernando Santos is beginning to define how Benfica 2007-8 will look like in the wake of the pre-season experiments. The goal seems likely to stay in local hands and two promises appear to be on the way out as the Águias prepare to make a break from last year’s silverware drought…

Goal.com - Portugal - Benfica Shaping Up After Guadiana Test

In a sudden change of heart, Benfica’s first-choice left-back has reportedly asked to be allowed to rescind his contract and leave the Lisbon club just as the season appears around the bend…

Goal.com - Portugal - Brazilian Wants Out Of Benfica

Esbjerg fB - FC København 0-0

Read about it at Yanks Abroad or Sporting Life.