With the win, Aalborg BK stay in fourth ahead of Saturday's trip to Danish leaders FC Copenhagen, but are now only a point behind third place Odense BK and two points shy of second place FC Midtjylland.
That's right, there's some excitement about the silver and bronze ware. But the gold medal is destined for FC København. The question is: by what margin will the record of league lead be extended.
FC København has 66 points, FC Midtjylland and OB 50 and 49. With six games to go these teams can reach a maximum of 68 and 67 points respectively. But what are the chances they manage that? Quite low. At the same time, what is the risk FC København can't make just three more points? About 0.1% So the probability of gold is higher than 99.9%
And quite likely the medals are secured next Saturday after the AaB home game. A win will do it, as can a draw or even a loss depending on the results of FC Midtjylland and OB. I'd say it's almost 60% sure we'll cheer to a gold medal Saturday night in Copenhagen. On the other hand AaB are in much more need of points as they struggle for a bronze or perhaps silver medal. And they appear to be in good form. I hope we're in for an entertaining game. Østerbro bars: order extra beer.
1 comment:
Oops! This entry erroneously ignores the microscopic theoretical probability that AaB should move past us. Shouldn't change the overall probability much though...
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