Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Crisis: 2008/09 Eurpean games in danger

Readers of my humble blog will know I'm not the type of fan to join the first choir of critics when something goes wrong. But a number of things has now added up to the 4th position being more realistic than the gold medal. Here is a quick look at how the league will end and the most obvious issues.

Monday Esbjerg fB drew 1-1 against AaB. Crucial actually, as a Aalborg win would have definitely put them in a position to move past the painful 60 point barrier. It was when looking forward to that game I realized how much in trouble we are. But thanks to Esbjerg the league is still open.

My prediction is actually done by a Perl script that eats the league table and the remaining matches outputting a distribution of likely finishing points for each team. It's still in beta (whatever you'd call a big hack) and I don't have time to figure out how to show you the actual distributions because i do not agree with the code tag right now ;-) but look:


AaB 64
FC Midtjylland 58
FC K�benhavn 57
OB 55
AC Horsens 51
Esbjerg fB 46
FC Nordsj�lland 47
Randers FC 45
Br�ndby IF 44
AGF 32
Viborg 24
Lyngby 19

Most guesses are about +/- 6 "precise". Meaning it wouldn't be unreasonable to hope for more than 60 points and that AaB can still miss that threshold.

And a bit of the harsh criticism I agree with:

  • Jesper Grønkjær is not a striker

  • A number of players deserves more playing time: Oscar Wendt, Ailton Almeida a.o.

  • New players hasn't played fully as good as expected

  • The midfield is impotent



Whatever the problem we need to win our three games versus the bottom three teams with whatever team we got. Take revenge on Esbjerg on the 27th. And approach the AaB game on the 12th of May like it was life or death. And on the 24th of May we play relegating Lyngby (3 points) while AaB host OB in a very open game. Nothing is settled until the 90th minutes of those games is my guess.
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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.