Saturday, November 11, 2006

Champions League Group F forecast

10 days to next game and I can't wait. After winning at home vs Manchester, the group has opened up for a number of interesting outcomes. But how open is it really? I've taken a look at experts and bookmakers assessments.

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Probabilities of number of final points for each team. Note: The graph could imply 5^4 = 625 outcomes. Of course there is only 3^4 = 81. Meaning each of four games have three different possible outcomes.

And a quick assessment of each team's probablity of winning the group and ending up second place.

  1. Manchester United 86%/8%

  2. Celtic 9%/46%

  3. Benfica 4%/34%

  4. FC København 1%/13%



Who ends up third place will be exciting.

What are people saying? Billy McNeill has spoken on Celtics chances:

vitalfootball.co.uk / McNeill backs Celtic's Euro bid
"I still think Celtic have a very good chance of progressing. If you had said at the start they would have had six points by this stage you would have been happy. Celtic know they'll get no favours from Sir Alex. United will feel they have to come here and take something but my old club rise to the challenge on nights like these. It was disappointing to see them lose against Benfica but the big blow came when Copenhagen beat Manchester United."


stv.tv / McNeill hopeful Rangers can reach UEFA Cup final
I still think Celtic have a great chance. At the start of the league you'd have been happy with Celtic having six points at this stage. It will be difficult as Manchester United are a magnificent team and FC Copenhagen away will be tough. It will be difficult but not impossible for Celtic and I think they'll get enough points. The fans can play their part as they were magnificent against Benfica and the team will respond to that.


Appears to be the same interview, just different journalists typing. BBC got it and there's yet another one at teamtalk.com / Gers can reach Euro final - McNeill.

Finally, the Benfica vs København match background article is ready at UEFA.com.
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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.