Placed 2nd with three matches to go things are getting tricky

A picture is worth a thousand words...

X-axis is final standing points of the top three teams, Y-axis are probabilities. Many combinations are mutually exclusive, of course. The graph is based on this Google Spreadsheet.

It's about 47 hours 'till the "final":

• 17-05-2009 17:30 FC København - Brøndby

However, FC Midtjylland placed 4th will play both Brøndby and OB plus OB will have to play Sønderjyske and Horsens who are fighting to avoid relegation. Nothing has been settled.

Aalborg clinched Danish title; Brøndby darby tomorrow

In case you didn't notice...

Aalborg clinched the Danish championship with two matches to go on Thursday, beating Brondby at home 2-0 and opening an insurmountable eight-point lead over last year’s champions, FC Copenhagen.

Most likely final standings include:

1. Gold / Champions League qualification: AaB 68, 69 or 71 points


2. Silver / UEFA Cup qualification: FC København 60, 61 or 63 p


3. Bronze / UEFA Cup qualification: FC Midtjylland 59 or 62 p


4. Fourth / TOTO Cup: OB 52, 53, 54, 55 or 57 p


5. Fifth / n/a: AC Horsens 47, 49, 51 or 53 p

(My emphasis on most probable final points.)

So this season's far from over: Tomorrow we have to beat former rivals Brøndby to put them in place and secure the silverware!

Placed ninth Brøndby looks relatively easy this year and statistics speak of a possible win. But actually they made 28 points at home so far, FC København only 23 away. And averaging this season's scores the tendency is 1.05 - 1.4 which is a bit narrow for my liking - but since 53% of the team's games had less than three goals, that might be a good bet. Significant injuries: Brøndby IF: Mikkel Bischoff, Morten 'Duncan' Rasmussen, Morten Rasmussen and Trond Andersen; FC København: Jesper Grønkjær is recovering from knee surgery while Mikael Antonsson, Niclas Jensen and Rasmus Würtz might soon be playing.

Wild guess: 1-1 draw, our goal scored by Morten Nordstrand ;-)

Michael Silberbauer Lost Four Teeth for FC Copenhagen: The Danish League Round Up

Michael Silberbauer had to be substituted in the first half of FC Copenhagen's game against fellow Champions League hopefuls OB.

A head collision with OB's Esben Hansen meant that Silberbauer had to pay an urgent visit to a nearby dentist. He lost FOUR teeth (My God!!).

This week's league: Elite tactics vs. mediocre dog fighting

The league in a nutshell: Copenhagen barely clinch victory in tactical top flight encounter with Odense while Brøndby suffer loss to league run-of-the-mill Esbjerg fB despite hard fought come back. Both Copenhagen teams scored twice but that must be the only similarity.

FC København - Odense Boldklub 2-1

This Saturday I witnessed from the sideline FC København registering another home win. By half time I was wondering why I hadn't put a bet on 0-0 because this was at least as defensive a game as anyone could have predicted. Before this weekend Odense only allowed 0.6 goals against on average and hadn't been beaten for seven games straight. We used five or six defenders in total and played the first hour with only one really dedicated striker. But with half an hour to go Marcus Allbäck made it 1-0 only minutes after entering the pitch. That man only scores important goals.

Now the game opened up a bit and we got two more goals to enjoy before leaving for post-game beers and games of billiard at the Copenhagen bars. A typical set piece header by Brede Hangeland and another sharp striker type finish by former FC København player David Nielsen. 2-1, 3 points and in place at the league pole position while Odense stay 4th.

Esbjerg fB - Brøndby IF 3-2

The contrast to Brøndby IF's away game against Esbjerg fB couldn't have been sharper. For one thing, I witnessed it getting drenched in hails and rain from the warm comfort of my couch. Brøndby have declared their crisis is over and talked of silverware in the pre-game interviews. Only to allow Esbjerg's Njogu Demba-Nyren to score after just 32 seconds.

Esbjerg continued dominating the game by excellent short passing, technical details and optimist attacking. Jesper Mikkelsen and Demba-Nyren made it 3-0. But before Brøndby collapsed Chris Katongo was brought on and managed to make it 3-1 by a resolute cannon ball finish from close distance. Then Stefan Gislason, Martin Ericsson and the strong wind collaborated on turning a corner kick into another goal.

Pressing for the equalizer Brøndby also allowed a couple of Esbjerg counter attacks. One of these ended in Niki Zimling - who otherwise had a great day at the job - wasting the opportunity of taking a penalty kick. Esbjerg fB are now placed 8th two points ahead of Brøndby.

0-0

OB - FC København 0-0

...

Benfica - Guimaraes 0-0

It’s going to take more than just a few training sessions to set Benfica back on the right track [...] Before the match returning tactician José Antonio Camacho reaffirmed his confidence and repeated his trust in budding star centre-back Miguel Vítor. The defender earned widespread applause with his solid work in defusing a slew of attacks by the visitors while the bulk of incisive attacking came from the boots of veteran number 10 Rui Costa and Under-21 man Fábio Coentrão [...] Nuno Gomes missed a great chance early on as the number 21 slapped a shot wide of Nilson’s sticks after being well set up by Paraguayan import Cardozo. Quim was solid for Benfica whenever called on.

Source: Goal.com - Camacho Unable To Reap Immediate Reward At Benfica

OB and Guimaraes (Vitória Guimarães) were this weekend's league opposition for København and Benfica respectively. Guimaraes has an UEFA coefficient of 15.913, OB 12.51. On last season's 'Computertabelle' at Kicker.de Benfica ranked 20, FC København 78, OB 89 and Guimaraes outside top 100. Qualified opponents for both teams to warm up for Wednesday with.

Danish Cup final: FCK 1 OB 2

16' Atiba Hutchinson 1-0
37' 1-1 Martin Borre
49' 1-2 Bechara Oliveira

We're the champions! - but when and by how much?

Yanks Abroad has an epic summary of this weekend's AaB - Vejle game, which sums up the league situation...

With the win, Aalborg BK stay in fourth ahead of Saturday's trip to Danish leaders FC Copenhagen, but are now only a point behind third place Odense BK and two points shy of second place FC Midtjylland.

That's right, there's some excitement about the silver and bronze ware. But the gold medal is destined for FC København. The question is: by what margin will the record of league lead be extended.

FC København has 66 points, FC Midtjylland and OB 50 and 49. With six games to go these teams can reach a maximum of 68 and 67 points respectively. But what are the chances they manage that? Quite low. At the same time, what is the risk FC København can't make just three more points? About 0.1% So the probability of gold is higher than 99.9%

And quite likely the medals are secured next Saturday after the AaB home game. A win will do it, as can a draw or even a loss depending on the results of FC Midtjylland and OB. I'd say it's almost 60% sure we'll cheer to a gold medal Saturday night in Copenhagen. On the other hand AaB are in much more need of points as they struggle for a bronze or perhaps silver medal. And they appear to be in good form. I hope we're in for an entertaining game. Østerbro bars: order extra beer.