Final standing analysis 2013/14

#	Klub	P	W		D		L		G		GA		+/-		Clean sheets		No goals
1.	AaB	33	18	**	8		7		60	**	38		22	*	11		6
2.	FC København	33	15		11		7		54		38		16		9		3	**
3.	FC Midtjylland	33	16		7		10		61	**	38		23	*	10		6
4.	Brøndby IF	33	13		13		7		47		38		9		10		7
5.	Esbjerg fB	33	13		9		11		47		38		9		10		10
6.	FC Nordsjælland	33	13		7		13		38		44		-6		11		6
7.	Randers FC	33	9		14	*	10		41		45		-4		4	*	7
8.	OB	33	10		10		13		47		46		1		5		8
9.	FC Vestsjælland	33	8		14	*	11		31	*	42		-11		7		13	*
10.	SønderjyskE	33	10		8		15		41		53		-12		9		7
11.	AGF	33	9		5	**	19	**	38		60	**	-22	*	4	*	14	***
12.	Viborg	33	6	**	10		17	*	38		63	***	-25	*	7		10

A season that started bad (just 7 points in first eight games, only win vs relegating Viborg), slumped up and down, then finished spectacularly. A season that played out not quite as predicted.

To evaluate a bit on the FC København players: The top point averages were made by Remmer 2.21; Margreitter 1.95; Braaten 1.77; TK 1.66 and Sigurdsson 1.64. That's young talent, two short term contracts that have left, TK who's probably (and unfortunately) also leaving and Sigurdsson who has already left. At home, the players with 2+ point averages are Remmer, Margreitter, Braaten, Wiland, Delaney, TK and Toutouh; away Remmer, Margreitter, Braaten, TK, Cornelius and Sigurdsson made 1.35+. (Only players with 900 minutes played or more have been included.)

Aalborg clinched Danish title; Brøndby darby tomorrow

In case you didn't notice...

Aalborg clinched the Danish championship with two matches to go on Thursday, beating Brondby at home 2-0 and opening an insurmountable eight-point lead over last year’s champions, FC Copenhagen.

Most likely final standings include:

1. Gold / Champions League qualification: AaB 68, 69 or 71 points


2. Silver / UEFA Cup qualification: FC København 60, 61 or 63 p


3. Bronze / UEFA Cup qualification: FC Midtjylland 59 or 62 p


4. Fourth / TOTO Cup: OB 52, 53, 54, 55 or 57 p


5. Fifth / n/a: AC Horsens 47, 49, 51 or 53 p

(My emphasis on most probable final points.)

So this season's far from over: Tomorrow we have to beat former rivals Brøndby to put them in place and secure the silverware!

Placed ninth Brøndby looks relatively easy this year and statistics speak of a possible win. But actually they made 28 points at home so far, FC København only 23 away. And averaging this season's scores the tendency is 1.05 - 1.4 which is a bit narrow for my liking - but since 53% of the team's games had less than three goals, that might be a good bet. Significant injuries: Brøndby IF: Mikkel Bischoff, Morten 'Duncan' Rasmussen, Morten Rasmussen and Trond Andersen; FC København: Jesper Grønkjær is recovering from knee surgery while Mikael Antonsson, Niclas Jensen and Rasmus Würtz might soon be playing.

Wild guess: 1-1 draw, our goal scored by Morten Nordstrand ;-)

Aalborg about to take gold

Today's 0-1 AaB win away at Viborg moves Aalborg within effectively just two more wins distance of the gold medal. Still possible for them to miss it, but now unlikely.


My little league predicting Perl script now emits a graph.

FC København, OB and FC Midtjylland are the three contenders for the two UEFA qualification spots. It is also looking more or less inevitable that Lyngby and Viborg will relegate. Computer aided or not, a quick look at the 1st Division tells us Vejle and probably SønderjyskE will gain promotion. Only Herfølge and Silkeborg retain chances of nabbing SønderjyskE's second place.

Aalborg away tomorrow and Bella in the sky with diamonds

Tomorrow it's AaB away. Always a difficult one and this time Rasmus Würtz' debut as a visiting opponent there. Expected lineup about the same as last time. Since I didn't go see training, my guess would be as wild as anyone's. But Mikael Antonsson is in the squad and could debut? We'll see.

My magical probability assessment says AaB win 22%, draw 26%, FC København win 52% chances.

And about an hour after the game I'm for sure going to check out the results of the Champions League 1^st Qualification Round 2^nd leg games. Because our old friend Fredrik Berglund has just jinxed the outcome of Elfsborg - Linfield significantly:

"We will beat Linfield 3-0. It was a real sickener that we didn't win the first leg match in Belfast, but sometimes, no matter what you do, the ball won't go into the net. It is a 'must win' game for us on Wednesday and I am 100 per cent confident. We will win 3-0. No question. You can put your house on it."

Belfast Telegraph / Put your house on 3-0 victory, says cocky Lundberg (Excuse the journalist being challenged with the Swedish name.)

In 1993 we eliminated Linfield when Lars Højer Nielsen scored for 4-0 in the extra time of the 2^nd leg game to overturn a 0-3 loss away in Ireland. (Thanks, Nipserstat!)

A beautiful day in the park

Yesterday, UEFA.com did some of the math I did too this week (previous post) and noted the club is looking at two records. It turned out as the season's second loss, however, so there's one record left.

Pre-season favourites København have extended their winter-break lead from six points to 16, and should they maintain or increase that advantage they will establish another record - the largest title-winning margin in Danish history.

UEFA.com / København hope for double record

Who cares? Let the AaB fans enjoy. It'll be sweet setting the league straight next Wednesday in Brøndby. Saturday was a beautiful day in the park - clear skies, 20 degrees Celsius, cold beer and happy people.



Fans gathered outside the stadium hours in advance of kick-off.




Classy tifo!




The away fans cheering. Enjoy this rare sight! (Yes, I was undercover in the AaB section of the stadium.)

We're the champions! - but when and by how much?

Yanks Abroad has an epic summary of this weekend's AaB - Vejle game, which sums up the league situation...

With the win, Aalborg BK stay in fourth ahead of Saturday's trip to Danish leaders FC Copenhagen, but are now only a point behind third place Odense BK and two points shy of second place FC Midtjylland.

That's right, there's some excitement about the silver and bronze ware. But the gold medal is destined for FC København. The question is: by what margin will the record of league lead be extended.

FC København has 66 points, FC Midtjylland and OB 50 and 49. With six games to go these teams can reach a maximum of 68 and 67 points respectively. But what are the chances they manage that? Quite low. At the same time, what is the risk FC København can't make just three more points? About 0.1% So the probability of gold is higher than 99.9%

And quite likely the medals are secured next Saturday after the AaB home game. A win will do it, as can a draw or even a loss depending on the results of FC Midtjylland and OB. I'd say it's almost 60% sure we'll cheer to a gold medal Saturday night in Copenhagen. On the other hand AaB are in much more need of points as they struggle for a bronze or perhaps silver medal. And they appear to be in good form. I hope we're in for an entertaining game. Østerbro bars: order extra beer.