FC Copenhagen nearly out of the race

Another subpar effort has relegated the defending league champs to fourth place in the top division

Preview(s): Benfica away

It’s a case of déjà vu in the Portuguese capital as Benfica attempt to bring home the bacon with a win against the great Danes.

Goal.com - Match Preview - CL Qualifying Preview: SL Benfica - FC Copenhagen

There is no denying that Benfica looks to be more formidable of the two and with the advantage of the home ground and above all the partisan fans, we can expect a better showing with the need to chalk up a huge win to take to Copenhagen for the return leg.

Source: AsianHandicap.com – Benfica v. Copenhagen

Approximate outcome probabilities: home win: 70%, draw: 20%, away win: 10%.

Newsvine / Champions League qualification: 3rd round, 1st leg - Tuesday games

[Manuel Fernandes] had been named in the Benfica squad for their Champions League qualifying match against FC Copenhagen tonight, but he did not join up with the squad once confirmation of Everton's offer arrived. The midfielder would be ineligible to play for Everton in the Uefa Cup should he play against the Danes

Belfast Telegraph / Everton close to securing £6m Fernandes deal

"I do not know a lot about Benfica's current situation, but I still consider them favourites to qualify for the group stage," [Copenhagen coach Ståle Solbakken] said. "However, they may not be much stronger than Beitar Jerusalem were at this moment in time."

UEFA.com / København test for new-look Benfica

Expected (aka "wild guesses at") lineups

Benfica

Bergessio - Ó Cardozo - R Costa
Petit - F Coentrão - Katsouranis
Miguelito - Luisão - D Luiz - L Filipe
Quim

København

M Allbäck
A Hutchinson
J Grønkjær - R Würtz - H Nørregaard - L Sionko
N Jensen - B Hangeland - M Gravgaard - W Kvist
J Christiansen

The linups depend a lot on Benfica's transfers and issues with individual players, the choices of coach Solbakken and today's form of the players. The above could very well be wrong at about six positions total. And actually, as much as "wild guesses" I admit to a bit of "wishful thinking" as well.

Jerusalem warm-up: Ståle and Grønkjær talks

"We spoke a lot about the Beitar fans' fanaticism, but this is soccer and we are professionals. An enthusiastic crowd is good for the home team, but we will be focusing on the match. I am more worried about the heat and the weather than I am about the crowd." - Ståle Solbakken.

"We need to score in the away match, that is the key. The moment that we score, Beitar will have to get three." - Jesper Grønkjær.

Looking to the nine bookies currently offering bets on the game the approximate outcome probabilities at 40% for a home win, 25% for a draw and 35% for another Copenhagen win. Since any draw and win will do our chance of an aggregate win is larger than 60%. Looking at 733 double encounter knock-outs with first game 1-0 home wins in 412 instances the first game home team advanced to next round. That's 56%.

The only major wild card in the equation is whether or not Rasmus Würtz gets fit for the match. But honestly, I'm not really worried either way.

Related: UEFA.com / Beitar target København conquest

"København are a good side yet we can still beat them and reach the next stage, where Benfica are waiting." - Beitar coach Itzhak Shum.

Take it easy and remember where we came from

Earth. We came from... earth. Such as this:



Yesterday's defeat at the hands of Farum aka FC Nordsjælland has of course inspired a handful of newspaper columnists in re-evaluating the power balance of Danish football. I will spare you the links to the paid rants. But I can't help noticing how all of a sudden coach Solbakken is out assuring us he scouted 50 right backs.

The thing is, when FCN scored in injury time, they did so on a swift counter attack and a volley across our central defensive air force to exploit the loose marking by substitute right back William Kvist. One little detail. One lost game. Media frenzy. Att. Ståle: I am joking when I write 'Ståle raus'. Of course. And it's perfectly ok with me when you do not obey my 'expected lineup' ;-) I appreciate William's long throw-ins too (even though I actually didn't see all of this particular one game due to work).

All teams loose a game every now and then. Even Gorica - today they lost their UEFA Cup qualifier at mighty Rabotnicki (whoever they are). Another old acquaintance of mine, MTK Budapest, whom I saw lose 0-1 at the hands of none other than mighty Benfica (it was terribly cold but you could buy shots of some booze at the Budapest stadium, I remember) won their UEFA Cup qualifier today. I also remember thinking "I'm far out" freezing at that Hungarian concrete stand. But actually, some years later we only advanced at the expence of Ferencvaros, I belive it was, because our goalie at the time, Swedish Magnus Kilstedt, pulled the performance of a life time in the penalty shoot out.

What am I getting at? I don't really know. Except take it easy. The very round and boucing ball is the reason we love the game. Forget the Champions Leage hymn and hype for a second - that was last year - smell the grass and get to work. We have three possible subs for the right back who all wants some of the action. Buying a dedicated guy would be nice - but not in a panic because of one unfortunate incident.

17th of July training session

Here's a couple of photographs and notes on today's training session for you.

(For larger size images at Flickr.com just click.)

Coach Solbakken interrupted training often to explain, complain and illustrate. Here it seems to be on how to dance like a chicken

This is sideways jumping while grapping your crutch

Our Canadian super-star, Atiba Hutchinson, did nothing but jogging and stretching today

Niclas Jensen ready to fire off a left wing free kick

"Incoming!"

Our big guy, Brede Hangeland, about to get to it

Warming down

Today's audience

During today's training game Oscar Wendt did quite a bit of "first team" right back duty. And he did very well. Morten Nordstrand scored the only regular goal after creating a chance himself when exploiting the "second team" defense being sloppy with a fast ball at the wet surface.

Expected lineup

M Allbäck - A Almeida

J Grønkjær - HB Nørregaard - R Würtz - M Silberbauer

N Jensen - B Hangeland - M Gravgaard - O Wendt

J Christiansen