Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Just another championship

Last Sunday was the night of the "New Firm" - one of the at least three annual matches vs. former Danish flagship, Brøndby IF. FC København won 0-2 away. The championship was practically secured.

Being a Danish football fan, FC Copenhagen season ticket holder and occasional blogger I should have been excited, right? And after the win I should be even more excited, right? Wrong.

Brøndby IF is not a force to be reckoned with in the top of Danish football any more. Years of mismanagement combined with entirely unrealistic ambitions have left them with the role of an unintentional entertainment factor. In different circumstances thee, maybe four, of their players would have a chance on the FC Copenhagen rooster. I didn't bother watching the hours of TV warm-up this time. I hadn't met up with a bunch of friends to shout at the screen - let alone traveled to the windy, suburban stadium, now a place enjoyable by hooligans alone. I opened a Carlsberg from my couch fully expecting the win and not even worrying too much about the consequences of the low risk of a draw or loss.

In fact, I bet 5 Danish kroner (I don't bet a lot) on 0-2:
Spot on - but unfortunately combined with a 2-2 outcome of FC Nordsjælland vs Randers FC which ended 1-1.

I didn't bother watching yesterday's SønderjyskE vs OB which ended as a surprise 2-0 win for the relegation threatened south Jutland team over our pursuing OB. Because OB would need to practically win the rest of their games anyway and sooner or later that would slip for them, I didn't doubt. It did happen a bit soon, though. Now OB need to win their last three games to get to the 62 points we're at already. That happening combined with us losing our three games and OB overcoming a +25 goal score difference... well, it's not happening. (My model says ~0.0186% before taking the goal difference into account.)

The real entertainment these days is in watching Brøndby fans and players babble on TV and reading the Brøndby IF inclined journalists rant on and on about how Brøndby was the better team for parts of the game, how a bronze medal is still possible despite their unlucky start of the season, how the club emanates a unique team spirit and has supporters of supernatural abilities. And in trying to get into some European clashes, of course.

A highly unpredictable league is drawing to an end. I'm considering a look at the mildly entertaining and very wrong prophesies made by journalists and experts at season start and half-time one of these days. But for now, I'll just dump some tendencies for the remaining games:

Randers FC-AaB 0.311 0.289 0.4

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby IF 0.427 0.191 0.382

FC København
-HB Køge 0.678 0.178 0.144


Esbjerg fB-Silkeborg 0.404 0.281 0.3145

AGF-SønderjyskE 0.356 0.311 0.333

OB-FC Nordsjælland 0.456 0.222 0.322


Brøndby IF-AaB 0.352 0.264 0.385

HB Køge-FC Midtjylland 0.278 0.178 0.544

Silkeborg-FC København 0.289 0.2 0.511

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg fB 0.308 0.286 0.407

FC Nordsjælland-AGF 0.422 0.222 0.356

OB-Randers FC 0.456 0.311 0.233


Randers FC-Brøndby IF 0.326 0.258 0.416

AGF-OB 0.267 0.289 0.444

FC Midtjylland-Silkeborg 0.433 0.211 0.356

AaB-HB Køge 0.578 0.233 0.189

Esbjerg fB-FC Nordsjælland 0.416 0.247 0.337

FC København
-SønderjyskE 0.544 0.233 0.222
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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.