Monday, February 12, 2007

Royal League in The Twilight Zone

11th of February is early for football in Denmark. So the roof had been pulled over the stadium to make it kind of an indoor experience. By the onset of second half it was so foggy you couldn't see the spectators farthest away on the other side of the field.

In all honesty I think FC København was the best team on the day and did control the game most of the time. Even though Tobias Linderoth, Jesper Grønkjær, Niclas Jensen and Markus Allbäck had been allowed a day off. But things didn't work out our way. An unbelievably lucky goal for Brøndby on one of their few attacks, a similarly unbelievably disallowed goal scored by Dan Thomassen (Man of the match in my book) etc. A "symmetrical number" of fans: 17,071. A loss of 0-1. All in all a bit weird.

Here's the only main stream media report in English about the game: Intl. Herald Tribune (AP) / Ericsson scores winner for Brondby in Royal League. Did AP miss there's still two games left?

Check out the miserable standings in group 2. Looks bleak eh? But note FC København only played four games and still have 6 points to play for. That's because of schedule re-planning due to Champions League (first priority, fair enough). And because the two best no. 3's also qualify for the quarterfinals all isn't lost yet.

The games to go are Brøndby IF again but away on the 18th and Hammarby at home on the 25th. Both are games with points in them. To not finish worst no. 3 we may just need one win because that's already likely to be better than AIK from group 3. They have just 6 points and a goal deficit of 5. I'd prefer two wins though.

All in all, I estimate the probability of FC København progressing from the group to be 65-70%. Also, consider the only bookmaker with odds on the tournament winner this morning has us and Vålerenga IF for equal favourites at roughly 16% chances.

So, even if it is living on the edge the ruling champions may not be totally lost in the darkness in this tournament that itself could be in it's last year. With the help of a little coffee, probability calculations and a look out the window things appear a lot brighter than they did walking home through the park in the snow and darkness.
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Copenhagen Files

I love football and I love the Internet. Copenhagen Files is a playground of mine for the latter and a billboard of the former. The focus is on FC København - the #1 club in Copenhagen and Denmark.

I watch every single FC København game - aways usually on the Danish TV, home games currently from my season ticket seat at Parken Stadium. Every now and then a report from the nearby training pitches are to be expected. Or perhaps just from the supporter environment at local parks or bars ;-)

I also like to bet on games which usually takes place online these days. Therefore, I gather numbers and look at them; I analyze, twist, turn and play with them. And some of them ends up here as my probability assessments. But this blog is not about betting.

In the right hand column I collect every single relevant link you can think of. I actually use it for bookmarks often - perhaps they will prove handy to you too? They should easily guide you to the latest info on injuries, club economy, squad value etc.