Final standing analysis 2012/13

Better late than never. It's been about seven weeks since the last game of last season. But before (possibly) picking up on looking towards season 2013/14, a quick look at last season is by now "tradition" (see 2011/12, 2010/11, 2009/10, and 2008/09).

#	Club	W		D		L		GF		GA		+/-		Clean sheets		No goals
1	FC København	18	**	11		4	***	62	*	32	*	30	***	9		6
2	FC Nordsjælland	17	*	9		7	*	60	*	37		23	*	13		5
3	Randers FC	15		7		11		36		42		-6		12		11
4	Esbjerg fB	13		8		12		38		32	*	6		16	**	11
5	AaB	13		8		12		51		46		5		8		10
6	FC Midtjylland	12		11		10		51		47		4		8		2	***
7	AGF	11		8		14		50		49		1		7		11
8	SønderjyskE	12		5	**	16		53		57		-4		4	*	9
9	Brøndby IF	9		12	**	12		39		45		-6		7		10
10	OB	10		8		15		52		59		-7		9		6
11	AC Horsens	8	*	10		15		31	**	49		-18		12		13
12	Silkeborg	8	*	7		18	*	38		66	**	-28	**	2	**	13

Despite the lead of only 5 points to no. 2, FC Nordsjælland, I was beginning to feel very confident as early as mid April. The very low number of lost games (4) and solid plus score (+30) speaks volumes as well.

Much better than last season. Nowhere near as dominant as the two seasons before that. One main different being the coach, Ariel Jacobs.

A few notable player stats via nipserstat.dk: In most games César Santin (45), most full 90 minutes games and most minutes played: Ragnar Sigurdsson (40 and 3838), most goals Andreas Cornelius (20), most assists Nicolai Jørgensen (10).

A graphic league table says more about gold than a thousand tables of numbers

The league table as of 18th of March 2013. Valid until next round on 28th of March 2013.

Compared to previous graphic league tables - which I know you know and love - the prognosis part (the thick part of the lines here with logos inserted) are now influenced by the current form of the teams. It still shows the area around the point average extrapolation but now the last five games played counts double.

This numerological change tricks us to see the championship even more firmly in the hands of FC København as not just the last five, but the last nine games have been wins (a record). But consider also that Copenhagen has 17 wins and has scored 54 goals in 23 games. Significantly better stats than any other team. The thick bar area doesn't touch that of the nearest pursuit any more - meaning the frequency of wins and draws would have to halve and at the same time double for Randers and/or FC Nordsjælland (FCN with only 22 goals against) during the remainder of the season for FC Copenhagen to slip from the 1st place. Unlikely.

In the bottom, Brøndby IF cosmetically climbed above the relegation line with a 1-1 draw against FC Midtjylland (each their 9th draw this season). But they are still a relegation zone team as they are level with Sønderjyske and Silkeborg (Silkeborg with 48 goals against!) at 21 points.

Stadium cuisine

The restaurant at the FC Copenhagen home turf does not have a Micheling star - it now has two Michelin stars. That has got to be relatively rare?

Meanwhile I avoid succumbing to hunger in the stands. Because most of the hot dogs I have tried have been under cooked chemical experiences so far.

Here is an interview in Danish with the chief chefs. You can actually see the pitch in the background.

Friendly vs Helsingborg at home

Lost 1-2. Copenhagen mostly in control; N. Jørgensen hit the post twice, C. Santin wasted a 100% chance. Helsingborg's first goal on a penalty clumsily and unnecessarily committed by S. Ottesen - who also fouled A. Santos for a yellow.

Friendly atmosphere. One in five spectators were Swedes. A. Santos celebrated by Copenhagen fans.

Old tickets, old memories

Found a few wrinkled tickets in the basement. I have trashed most throughout the years and have even given some away to a foreign collector but a few memorable ones survived.

The game against Hamburg was scandalous. That referee was relegated to English amateur leagues.

On the trip to the Royal League final a guy was thrown off the bus for pissing in the aile, another arrested immediately upon arrival for being too drunk.

Mallorca had Eto'o with them, Lazio had Nesta.

Danish Superliga 2011/12: final standings analysis

Final standing analysis

We "won" silver. Scored the most goals (55) and lost the fewest games (5) but nothing much out of the ordinary (as in P<0.1 rather than just 0.2, you know).

What is impressive is a team expected to finish mid-league getting clean sheets in 52% of their games. Congratulations. To be fair, their title is also based on the failure of OB and the near complete disintegration of Brøndby.

#	Klub	Won	Draw	Lost	GF	GA	+/-	CS	NG	Cards
1	FC Nordsjælland	21**	5*	7	49	22**	27*	17***	7	55
2	FC København	19*	9	5*	55*	26*	29*	14*	7	50
3	FC Midtjylland	17	7	9	50	40	10	9	5*	55
4	AC Horsens	17	6	10	53	39	14	9	8	49
5	AGF	12	12*	9	47	40	7	11	7	33***
6	SønderjyskE	11	11	11	48	51	-3	6	10	57
7	AaB	12	8	13	42	48	-6	6	8	51
8	Silkeborg	11	10	12	51	47	4	4	5*	70*
9	Brøndby IF	9	9	15	35*	46	-11	8	11*	47
10	OB	8	10	15	46	50	-4	7	8	68*
11	Lyngby	8	4**	21**	32**	60	-28*	4	12**	57
12	HB Køge	4**	7	22**	32**	71***	-39***	3*	10	67

Based on the sovereignty of the Danish league in previous seasons (see analysis of 2010/11 and 2009/2010) and a squad value twice the sum of nearest competitors pre-season the championship chances were estimated to higher than 60%.

What happened?

The season was the first since the Ståle Solbakken era. Several players had left us. A promising Swede was scouted for the coach job and in a display of how deceitful statistics can be, he left the best ever Superliga point average record when he was sacked. Despite the points performances had been unimpressive at best, outright bad in Europa League. Add to that rumors of players disliking him. Sad.

The winter break analysis. Since then FC Copenhagen slumped, FC Nordsjælland improved. But actually, neither was entirely unforeseeable. Both teams finished well within the thick parts of their blue bars seen here.

So, our sports director took over at "the easiest job in Denmark" (his own words). And failed miserably. It should have been possible to finish the job given the lead. But this spring has been the worst to be watching from the stands in many years. Constant backwards passing. Mindless long balls to empty spaces in the opposition half. Gaping holes in the defense. Recently confident players now panicking to get rid of the ball. Gee, at least they hired some cheerleaders this season...

According to Danish media Carsten Vagn Jensen is not going to coach for another game. Can't say I feel sorry for either him or Roland Nilsson, but no hurt feelings either. It could have worked, it didn't, good luck guys.

What now?

Zanka and Nordstrand already signed with PSV Eindhoven and FC Nordsjælland respectively. Dame N'Doye will leave - so we have been sure for months and now Everton is open about their interest (and willingness to pay graciously). Johan Wiland could be sold for a big sum also; prettying up hole in the accounting after the lost Champions League incomes further while leaving us with fully competent Kim Christensen to guard the goal.

On top of that management need to take a good hard look at the rest of the squad. Then act reasonably (contrary to harshly and instinctively like most fans seem to be demanding). A bit of discussion (and scape goat picking) could be fun, but how about basing it on facts? Below is a graph of players ordered by point averages and matches played. (Please count in how many ways it lies to us as far as being a tool of evaluating performances.)



Based on the brilliant Nipserstat.dk. If a player was in a lot of games, shouldn't his point average best be above the team average (2) for us to conclude he's safe from criticism? (Largest uncertainty in the table is it doesn't account for actual minutes played.)

See you in a couple of months when I probably make wild claims about next season.